I Believe in the Future of Agriculture

A special letter to the new Secretary of Agriculture

The following is a letter that I have written to our new Secretary of Agriculture, Brooke Rollins. I do not particularly like “open letters,” as I find that many of them are written to generate attention to the author, not reach the recipient. As such, I am wary of a similar effect with this letter. I hope many people read it, but I hope Secretary Rollins reads it more than anyone else. Accordingly, I have sent this letter to her by hard copy and by email. If you are a reader who can get a copy in her hands more directly than the general paths of USDA correspondence, and if you are willing to help, please contact me.

Download this letter as a PDF here.

February 20, 2025

Hon. Brooke L. Rollins

Secretary of Agriculture

United States Department of Agriculture

1400 Independence Ave., S.W.

Washington, D.C. 20250

Dear Secretary Rollins,

Congratulations on your nomination and overwhelming confirmation vote as our 33rd Secretary of Agriculture!

The men and women who have held this position are instrumental in changing and shaping the American food system and the very face of rural America, for better or worse. Unfortunately, much of the trend has been decidedly worse for over half a century. You have taken this office at a critical time. America’s farmers, ranchers, and rural communities are under pressure from every direction. You have called this nomination the honor of your life and vowed to “fight for America’s farmers and our Nation’s agricultural communities.” We are counting on you to do just that.

I am but the mayor of one of those agricultural communities, in my hometown of Stamford, a two and one-half hour drive west of your hometown of Glen Rose. I wish to encourage you in your task and offer you my perspective as to what is necessary for your fight to succeed. When you and I both joined the FFA, one of our first requirements was to learn the famed FFA Creed. It so memorably opens, “I believe in the future of agriculture with a faith born not of words, but of deeds…” Your fight in this role is for nothing short of the future of agriculture. Words matter, but words alone will not do this job. We need your action—your deeds—to reverse the seemingly terminal decline of American farms, ranches, and rural communities.

I say “seemingly” for a reason. After World War II, many technocrats in the agricultural policy triangle of government, academia, and business sold this decline as inevitable. They boasted that the future of agriculture was big, fast, and efficient. Anything that obstructed that goal (including the old and cherished ways of farming and rural life) was cast aside as archaic. Yet, this was not the result of any inevitable deterministic force. The move towards big-fast-efficient was a very deliberate choice. The perils of the current agricultural landscape are the outcome of those deliberate policy choices promoted in part by your predecessors of the last 70 years.

Secretary Ezra Taft Benson was the first to utter the line “get big or get out” in the Eisenhower Administration. Benson started the path of some farmers getting big and many more getting out. His protégé Earl Butz made that a full-fledged crusade during his tenure as Secretary under Nixon and Ford. Butz declared that there were “too many farmers” and he made it his personal mission to increase farm production and decrease farm and rural populations. He succeeded. The number of farms in the United States peaked at 6.8 million in 1935.¹ Mechanization and technological advancements initiated a general decline, but USDA policies drove that number into the ditch. The farm number bottomed out at around 2 million under Butz, and languished in that vicinity for several decades, but USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) data shows that it finally fell below 2 million farms in 2023.² At the 1935 peak, the average farm size was about 100 acres.³ Today, ERS reports that the average farm size is 464 acres.⁴ These policies didn’t *just* run farmers off the farms and push population into the cities. These policies disproportionately concentrated farming and food production into an incredibly small number of people and places. Ellen Davis recounts in her powerful book “Scripture, Culture, and Agriculture” that in 2002, 94% of the food grown in America was grown by a mere 400,000 farms⁵. The remaining 1.6 million farms grew only 6% of food.⁶ America in 2025 may not need the 6.8 million farms of 1935, but we need something better and safer than a dependence on 400,000 farms to grow 94% of our food.

The decline in farms has not only depopulated so much of rural America. It has also made our nation dangerously dependent on a handful of people, places, and corporations for our food supply. America’s food is no longer grown on a regional scale, where people, communities, and regions have a level of self-sufficiency that is augmented by trade on a regional, state, national, or international level. Today, so much of our food—especially meat, grain, and produce—is grown in a very small number of places, at very large scale, controlled by only a few firms. The supply-chain failures of the COVID—19 pandemic exposed this brittle system. Subsequent shocks, from fires at packing plants to disease outbreaks, solidified that we have built an unconscionable risk into our food system.

A country as bountiful as our own should never be subjected to food shortages. Yet, when 20% of egg production is concentrated into a single company (Cal-Maine) and two European companies control 90% of the world’s egg-layer hens, a “bird flu” outbreak causes just that.⁷ It is not just eggs. The beef cartel comprised of just four companies (Tyson, JBS, Cargill, National Beef) controls 80 to 85% of beef processed in America.⁸ It should be further noted that 40% of that processing volume is in the hands of two Brazilian firms (JBS and National Beef’s parent Marfrig).⁹ Four companies control 70% of the pork processing volume¹⁰ and four companies control almost two-thirds of chicken processing.¹¹ The list goes on. The consolidation of food companies has further contributed to the decline in farms. Buyers with disproportionate market power can make enormous demands of growers to meet their standard and scale. Or, as dairy farmers have experienced time and again, powerful buyers can simply refuse to purchase from growers deemed too small to suit them.

Here’s the worst part: the increase in size is not good for anybody except the large corporations! We can discuss the superior taste of food that you grew or raised yourself (or purchased direct from the farmer) but it goes far beyond that. “Food safety” and “food security” are used to justify consolidation under the theory that a smaller number of large growers and processors are easier to regulate and protect. The reality has shown otherwise. The current price and availability of eggs from the highly-concentrated poultry industry is our primary exhibit. Egg prices were bandied about in a discussion of inflation before and after the presidential election, but corporate consolidation and monopoly power are the real threat here and they threaten both farmers and grocery shoppers alike.

The claims of safety and security of our ultra-concentrated food supply are, simply put, a farce. The only safe and secure food supply is a decentralized system in which more farms in more places can pick up the slack when one region falters or is hit by disaster. This is not just fanciful speculation by a rural nostalgist. Ellen Davis shared some data in her book that in every country for which data is available, smaller farms are 200 to 1000% percent more productive per unit area.¹² Larger farms are typically monoculture-driven, while smaller farms tend to grow a diversified mix of crops and livestock that thrive in different seasons, under different conditions, and with lower risks of total failure from a single outcome. Davis reiterates an obvious but extremely important point to a rural leader like me: “smaller farms also generate more prosperity for nearby rural towns, where farmers buy supplies and in turn find markets for their produce.” The example of Bluffton, Georgia is instructive. Will Harris, the owner of White Oak Pastures and a world leader in a vision for the future of a healthy agriculture, remade his multigenerational family ranch from a traditional cog in the industrial system to a multispecies, diversified agricultural ecosystem. He originally employed only a handful of people. Today, he employs over 150 people¹³ and it has transformed Bluffton from a mere spot in the road into a community with amenities to serve the employees, their families, and the people who visit his farm throughout the year.

In 2000, the great rural writer Wendell Berry penned an essay titled “Stupidity in Concentration.”¹⁴ He illustrated the folly of a large-scale confinement chicken farming enterprise in which a typical individual farmer was asked (at the time) to borrow $1 million in operating capital with an expected return of only $20,000 to $30,000. Berry observed that the executives of the large poultry companies would never approve such a large and high-risk investment for such a low return with their own money, which is why those companies foisted the risk onto desperate farmers trying to keep a farm afloat with a chicken enterprise. In the 20-plus years since that essay was published, the concentrated stupidity of farm finances has only multiplied and grown. Farmers in every commodity are asked to spend more in every respect. Seed, chemical, equipment, fuel, feed, fertilizer, and other inputs constantly increase in price. The only thing that hasn’t increased is crop prices. Yields in many crops have doubled over the last 40 years, but the inflation-adjusted crop prices are often twice the current price, meaning that the farmer is often worse off for doubling his production. Every month, the USDA issues a price report for many crops and livestock.¹⁵ This report tracks current prices relative to a “parity price” target that is intended to be a measure of true farm prosperity. I check these reports from time to time. Without fail, the current prices for the crops that are most important to my community (upland cotton and hard red winter wheat) are usually about 1/3 of the parity price. It is no wonder that the farm economy is in distress.

There is an added frustration to the concentrated stupidity. Because the capital requirements are so enormous, and because so many farmers are so beholden to debt, their harvest and management decisions are often inherently tied to the spreadsheet decisions of the debt, rather than good management of the land and harvest of a crop. Numerous are the examples of farmers who are limited in experimenting with new management techniques (including those that conserve water or improve soil health) because the techniques are not permitted by crop insurance and because the farmer is not permitted by his lender to work outside the boundaries of crop insurance. Moreover, marginal crops are often forced to be destroyed because crop insurance offers the best chance of repaying a farmer’s creditors. Crop insurance is intended to be a safety net, but too often it becomes a blanket that smothers a farmer’s innovation and good management. This is not only unnecessarily expensive, it is not the intention of a safety net program.

Very few farmers have grown bigger because they truly enjoy the added stress, risk, and debt load. So many farms have gotten larger as a matter of necessity, because farm policy has forced them to do so and because the price of everything forces them to scale up in hopes of surviving. Yet, as we have seen from several years of ad-hoc economic assistance from Congress, survival is treacherous. The entire farm economy is teetering. Wendell Berry has often said that truly fixing the farm economy would require agricultural policy makers to admit that agricultural policy since World War II is largely a failure. Policy makers beholden to the status quo would never make that admission.

Well, here we are.

You do not come from the status quo of farm policy. You do not come from the same background as many of your predecessors. You have been confirmed into this office with the expectation of making significant changes to the USDA. You have spoken of your desire to fight for us. This is the fight. The President’s “Make America Healthy Again” executive order expressly referenced working with farmers to make food healthy, abundant, and affordable.¹⁶ That was significantly eye-catching to many of us who have long been frustrated that “food” and “health” are viewed as entirely separate discussions in policy. Now is the time to upend the status quo. Now is the time to declare the end of the Benson-Butz policies. Now is the time to admit that “get big or get out” was a failure, that we need more farmers, and that we need less centralization throughout the farming and food system.

Believing in the future of agriculture requires us to acknowledge our policy failures and to be honest about what has and has not worked. It requires us to reckon with our past and reinvigorate the good, timeless ideas of the past that were cast aside as outdated. Our farm economy is not working. Rural communities are dying. Farmers and ranchers who are captive to farm policy are struggling. Consumers desire healthier and more affordable food. We need a change.

If you truly want to enact transformative change for America’s farmers, ranchers, and rural communities, we need to start with the following:

1. We must make farming affordable again. We can start by applying pressure to seed, chemical, farm equipment, and fertilizer companies to end their anti-competitive and monopolistic practices that have driven up costs to farmers. Only by making farming more affordable can we attract more farmers into the business, make the business viable to young farmers who do not arrive with generational wealth, and ensure that those currently engaged can stay in the business.

2. We need to reform crop insurance and safety net programs to incentivize harvesting crops, rather than forcing farmers to destroy marginal crops to appease their lenders and other creditors.

3. We must encourage both proven and experimental farming techniques that increase soil health, conserve our water and natural resources, and reduce dependence on expensive inputs. This includes, among other ideas, multi-cropping systems, cover crops, and drought-tolerant tillage and planting methods, many of which are penalized by crop insurance and thus not fully available to farmers dependent on lenders who require certain crop insurance coverages.

4. We must fix the problem of perennially low prices paid to farmers and ranchers. It starts with breaking up commodity cartels that intentionally depress prices paid to farmers and that exercise monopoly power in markets. It includes encouraging and incentivizing diversified farming that offers more revenue opportunities to farmers and reduce regulatory limitations on farmers selling directly to consumers and restaurants.

American agriculture is at a crossroads. A generation from now, one of two things will happen. The first option is that most farm communities will have withered into ghost towns and rural America will be fully transformed into an extractive colony operated by corporations for the benefit of suburban and urban America. Alternately, we will have unleashed a new golden era of agriculture in which more people choose to farm, in which more farmers have more and better market opportunities than they have experienced in decades, more consumers know where their food comes from, and more people are healthier as a result. The choice sounds simple, but it absolutely requires an honest assessment of the failures of the work done by your predecessors and important reforms to fix those failures.

Rural America is counting on you. The opportunity is here and we can fix what ails the farm economy, rural communities, and the American shopper’s grocery list. We are ready to fight alongside you.

Yours very truly,

James M. Decker

Mayor of Stamford, Texas

James Decker is the Mayor of Stamford, Texas and the creator of the West of 98 website and the “Rural Church and State” and “West of 98” podcasts. Contact James and subscribe to these essays at westof98.substack.com and subscribe to him wherever podcasts are found. Check out the West of 98 Bookstore with book lists for essential reads here.

1. Andrew Keller and Kathleen Kassel, "The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline” (February 29, 2024), https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/chart-detail?chartId=58268

2. Andrew Keller and Kathleen Kassel, "The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline” (February 29, 2024), https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/chart-detail?chartId=58268

3. Andrew Keller and Kathleen Kassel, "The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline” (February 29, 2024), https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/chart-detail?chartId=58268

4. Andrew Keller and Kathleen Kassel, "The number of U.S. farms continues slow decline” (February 29, 2024), https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/chart-detail?chartId=58268

5. See Ellen F. Davis, “Scripture, Culture, and Agriculture: An Agrarian Reading of the Bible,” (2008) Cambridge University Press; Chapter 6: Covenantal Economics: The Biblical Case for a Local Economy

6. See Ellen F. Davis, “Scripture, Culture, and Agriculture: An Agrarian Reading of the Bible,” (2008) Cambridge University Press; “Chapter 6: Covenantal Economics: The Biblical Case for a Local Economy”

7. “Farm Action Calls for an Investigation into Skyrocketing Egg Prices and Restricted Supply” (February 12, 2025), https://farmaction.us/farm-action-calls-for-an-investigation-into-skyrocketing-egg-prices-and-restricted-supply/

8. See Basel Musharbash, “Kings Over the Necessaries of Life: Monopolization and the Elimination of Competition in America’s Agriculture System” (September 2024), https://farmaction.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Kings-Over-the-Necessaries-of-Life-Monopolization-and-the-Elimination-of-Competition-in-Americas-Agriculture-System_Farm-Action.pdf

9. See Basel Musharbash, “Kings Over the Necessaries of Life: Monopolization and the Elimination of Competition in America’s Agriculture System” (September 2024), https://farmaction.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Kings-Over-the-Necessaries-of-Life-Monopolization-and-the-Elimination-of-Competition-in-Americas-Agriculture-System_Farm-Action.pdf; See also Lisa Held “Just a Few Companies Control the Meat Industry. Can a New Approach to Monopolies Level the Playing Field?” (July 14, 2021), https://civileats.com/2021/07/14/just-a-few-companies-control-the-meat-industry-can-a-new-approach-to-monopolies-level-the-playing-field/

10. See Basel Musharbash, “Kings Over the Necessaries of Life: Monopolization and the Elimination of Competition in America’s Agriculture System” (September 2024), https://farmaction.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Kings-Over-the-Necessaries-of-Life-Monopolization-and-the-Elimination-of-Competition-in-Americas-Agriculture-System_Farm-Action.pdf

11. See Basel Musharbash, “Kings Over the Necessaries of Life: Monopolization and the Elimination of Competition in America’s Agriculture System” (September 2024), https://farmaction.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Kings-Over-the-Necessaries-of-Life-Monopolization-and-the-Elimination-of-Competition-in-Americas-Agriculture-System_Farm-Action.pdf

12. See Ellen F. Davis, “Scripture, Culture, and Agriculture: An Agrarian Reading of the Bible,” (2008) Cambridge University Press; “Chapter 6: Covenantal Economics: The Biblical Case for a Local Economy”

13. “Our Core Values - White Oak Pastures,” https://whiteoakpastures.com/pages/our-core-values

14. See “Citizenship Papers: Essays by Wendell Berry” (2003) Counterpoint Press; “Stupidity in Concentration”

15. See representative case: National Agricultural Statistics Service, “Agricultural Prices” (December 31, 2024), https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/c821gj76b/f1883f81v/wp98bd617/agpr1224.pdf

16. “Establishing the President’s Make America Healthy Again Commission” (February 13, 2025), https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/02/establishing-the-presidents-make-america-healthy-again-commission/